The hottest loose monetary environment is still th

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Loose monetary environment is still the driving force behind the chemical bull market will continue

since May this year, the international crude oil price has been fluctuating in the US dollar box. After October, it broke through the upper edge of the US dollar box and fluctuated around us $85. The author believes that the main reason for this round of rise is the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, and the fundamentals of crude oil have not changed much. If the loose currency remains unchanged, crude oil may fluctuate strongly in the US dollar sh/t0204 ⑼ 2 range in the short term

in developed countries, the unemployment rate is high this year, and the economic recovery is slow. At the same time, the low inflation rate has also left enough space for Raymond company, a loose goods company in developed countries, to begin to establish a new commercial carbon fiber equipment monetary policy in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. I want to thank those customers who introduced our experimental machine and friends for their policies. This year, the unemployment rate in the United States has remained at a record high of more than 9%, and the federal funds rate has also remained at 0 ~ 0. It communicates through the serial port (COM) behind the computer A record low of 25%. The benchmark interest rates of core economies such as Japan, Europe and the United Kingdom are all at a 30-year low. The Bank of England set the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, and the European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 1%. As for the dollar, with the mid-term election of Congress approaching, the Obama administration is eager to show its tough stance on stimulating the economy. The U.S. government's fiscal policy measures have made limited contributions to the economic recovery, which determines that loose money may be a long-term policy of the United States. From the perspective of the dollar index, the index has continued to decline since June, with a decline of more than 10%. There may be a certain rebound near 76 in the near future, but there is still room for the dollar to fall in the long run. In the short term, the pass of 74 may be tested downward, and the possibility of approaching the historical lowest point of 70 cannot be ruled out

the G20 summit, which starts next month, may become a time window for developing countries to play games with developed countries. However, from the current situation of economic recovery in developed countries, it is difficult for developing countries to fully agree to the proposal of strict monetary policy in developed countries. Therefore, prior to the G20 summit, commodity prices driven by the depreciation of the US dollar will continue to rise. It is estimated that crude oil will fluctuate strongly between the US dollar

in terms of fundamentals, with the arrival of the northern hemisphere winter heating oil consumption peak season in the fourth quarter, crude oil may have a positive support. However, in the long run, the motivation for the sharp rise in crude oil is still insufficient. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economic growth rate will fall to 4.2% in 2011 from 4.8% this year. The economic downturn has slowed down oil demand, and high inventories have made supply pressure greater. From a fundamental point of view, crude oil prices may have a certain pressure above $90

domestically, since February this year, the year-on-year growth rates of M0 and M1 supply have remained above 15% and 20% respectively. Although there are rumors of raising interest rates in China, the recent increase in the deposit reserve ratio may be a measure that the government is more willing to adopt rather than raising interest rates. The government has also repeatedly said that the annual inflation target can be achieved, and the recent focus of the government's work is still to adjust the structure, making it less likely to raise interest rates during the year. Domestically, the loose monetary policy will continue

in terms of various chemical products, the author analyzed the data of Shanghai Jiao, PE, PVC and international crude oil prices since their listing, and found that their price correlations were 85%, 86% and 40% respectively. The correlation differences among varieties are due to: synthetic rubber, as a crude oil product, has a good substitution for natural rubber, which determines the high correlation between crude oil and rubber; PE is the downstream product of crude oil, so the correlation is the best; There are two kinds of PVC: calcium carbide method and ethylene method. If the crude oil price is too high, the market will inevitably choose calcium carbide method, so the correlation between the two is the lowest

recently, Shanghai Jiao has hit a record high. The continuous rainstorm in Hainan, the main production area, has provided support for the spot price. Shanghai Jiao has maintained a long market in the near future. Investors are advised to follow the trend and continue to hold more orders in the early stage. Prudent investors can reduce some multi orders appropriately. Due to the pressure of overcapacity, the trend of PVC and PE is weaker than that of Shanghai Jiao. However, the recent domestic energy-saving and emission reduction policies have led to a sharp rise in the spot market price. Under the background of the rise of the entire commodity market, it still maintains more suggestions. The author believes that the bull market in chemicals will continue. Investors are reminded that the rising market driven by monetary factors comes and goes quickly, so if the market turns around, bulls should firmly leave the market

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