The healthy development of the lithium battery industry can be promoted only by reversing the situation of "overcapacity"
recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology organized a kick-off meeting on the preparation of the new energy vehicle industry development plan (year), which once again stirred up a spring in the lithium battery industry. Despite the constant calls for overcapacity, the desire for lithium battery investment under the capital supporters has not been fully released. An investment boom is sweeping across China
under the impulse of investment, the expectation of reshuffle of the industry also follows. How to avoid the "herd" investment pattern has once again attracted industry attention
"overheated investment" to "overcapacity"
"capital is always sensitive, but the expression of 'excess investment' is not necessarily accurate. In the market environment, the large-scale influx of capital is inevitable in the early stages of any 'sunrise industry'. In the long run, the influx of capital will also promote the good development of the industry. Although investment will not be 'excess', it will show' overheating '." IResearch consulting industry analyst Wang Qianzai said
"in fact, the lithium battery industry most related to new energy vehicles is the power battery industry, and the power battery is no longer a baby in the development matrix." Wang Qian pointed out that according to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the installed capacity of power batteries in China's new energy vehicle industry and adjustment industry in 2018 was 56.89gwh, which achieved a leap forward growth compared with the installed capacity of less than 1GWh in 2012. China has developed into the world's largest new energy vehicle market
at present, the power battery enterprises represented by Ningde times and BYD have certain international competitiveness. It is undeniable that "overcapacity" with shipments far greater than installed capacity has always existed. Take the just past 2018 as an example, the shipment volume of China's power battery industry has reached more than 65gwh, and there is pressure for de stocking. Wang added by the favorable policies and market
in addition, in order to avoid damage, from the perspective of capacity utilization, it is also an important reason for "overcapacity". According to the data, since 2015, the capacity utilization rate of China's power lithium battery industry has continued to decline. In 2017, the capacity utilization rate of the industry was only 31.3%, and in 2018, the capacity utilization rate was about 29.5%. The problem of overcapacity in the industry is prominent
according to the data, by 2020, the power battery capacity of 15 large and medium-sized power battery manufacturers, including Ningde times, BYD and GuoXuan high tech, will be close to 300gwh, which is three times the demand for power batteries of new energy vehicles in 2020
the analysis pointed out: "on the one hand, the government intervention has raised the access threshold, and huge subsidies have attracted a lot of investment. The lithium battery industry is greatly affected by the policy. In November 2016, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the standard conditions for the automotive power battery industry (2017) (Exposure Draft) The annual capacity of lithium-ion power battery single enterprises is required to be no less than 8gwh, forcing most lithium battery enterprises to expand production capacity. On the other hand, as a national strategic emerging industry, the new energy vehicle industry has a series of subsidies and preferences from the central government to the local government, which has attracted a large amount of funds to enter the field of new energy vehicle supporting. As the core of the new energy vehicle industry, power batteries are no exception. "
"in addition, competition intensifies and production is expanded to pursue economies of scale." Jiang Wangyue said that the power battery industry in China is highly competitive. On the one hand, China has gradually liberalized the restrictions on the share ratio of joint venture vehicles, intensifying market competition; On the other hand, with the gradual decline of policy subsidies, the power battery market is changing from "policy oriented" to "market-oriented"
one of the important ways for power battery enterprises to stand out among many competitors is to expand production. The necessary capacity scale can enable battery enterprises to reduce production costs, improve the bargaining power of vehicle enterprises, and obtain greater profit space. Expanding production is also a quick way for enterprises to seize market share. Jiang Wangyue said
Wang Qian pointed out that the direct cause of "overcapacity" is the confidence of all kinds of capital in the "electrification" trend of the automobile and travel industry. The investment of capital has caused the result of "overcapacity" and the phenomenon of "overheated investment" from the upstream. Although the share of new energy vehicles is expanding, at this stage, the limitations of new energy vehicles still make it difficult to "face-to-face" with internal combustion engine vehicles in the short term, and their low-temperature impact testing machines have those market scales with limited functions, which are difficult to digest a large amount of power battery capacity
"favorable policies also have a great attraction for capital." Wang Qian said that the superposition of multiple factors has made the capital of all parties continue to increase in the power battery industry
the "overcapacity" of lithium battery industry will have a certain impact on the development of the industry in the future
first, it will delay technological innovation and increase the burden on the industry. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that lithium batteries are capital and technology intensive industries, and technological innovation cannot be separated from the support of three elements: capital, R & D and talents. At present, the overcapacity of China's lithium battery industry is serious, and the overall situation is "excessive, scattered and chaotic". Leading enterprises rarely reach the international leading level in terms of product technology level, cost control and production management system. Small and medium-sized enterprises are trapped in the dilemma of scale. The overcapacity caused by blind expansion has caused waste of capital, insufficient R & D accumulation and lack of talents, which is not conducive to lithium battery technology innovation
secondly, accelerate the elimination of enterprises. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that due to the overcapacity at the low end of the industry, most small and medium-sized enterprises are seriously homogenized and cannot meet the high-end demand. Orders for power batteries have plummeted, the market has been squeezed seriously, and the economic benefits of enterprises have been declining. Especially with the successive launch of lithium battery capacity in, the differentiation of capacity utilization will continue to intensify, accompanied by the comprehensive differentiation of the profitability of lithium battery enterprises, and the small and medium-sized manufacturers with poor profits or even losses will accelerate their exit
"it must be reiterated that the increase in investment behavior is not a bad result for the entire industry." Wang Qian said that the survival of the fittest is the only way for the whole industry to mature. The negative effects that may be caused by "overheated investment" include blindly following the trend of investment and financing and the emergence of some power battery manufacturers that produce for "subsidies", but these effects will also become a thing of the past in the short term. At present, the market share of the power battery field is continuing to concentrate on leading enterprises. The industry integration, standardized development and the improvement of the power battery industry chain from production to recycling will be completed with the dual support of capital and policy
reverse the situation and promote healthy development
how to reverse the common problem of "a swarm of investment" leading to "overcapacity" and promote the healthy development of the industry
first of all, we should strengthen production capacity early warning and strengthen safety supervision. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that effective and true capacity information can help investors and enterprises make reasonable decisions. A capacity release and early warning mechanism can be established. Government departments or third-party non-profit organizations can verify and release information in a timely manner, put an end to "unfinished" projects and "pit occupation", and focus on capacity utilization and capacity changes. In order to protect the interests of consumers, strengthen the supervision of illegal battery products, track and investigate the enterprises with battery quality and safety problems, and implement effective punishment measures
secondly, encourage market-oriented mergers and acquisitions. Jiang Wangyue said that the market will play a key role in the elimination of low-end production capacity. Enterprises with backward technology, too small scale and scattered forms lack competitiveness and will naturally be eliminated under the market survival mechanism. With the exertion of market mechanism, the pace of mergers and acquisitions among enterprises will be accelerated, and the concentration and competitiveness of enterprises will be further improved. We should continue to play the leading and exemplary role of leading enterprises
in addition, the focus of development has shifted from production expansion to quality improvement, cost reduction and technological breakthroughs. At present, the development strategy of mainstream power battery enterprises is no longer focused on capacity expansion, but on how to optimize capacity, achieve product quality and cost reduction through core technology innovation and intelligent level improvement, and fundamentally enhance competitiveness. At present, new energy vehicle enterprises have put forward higher requirements for the energy density, cycle life and safety of power lithium batteries, and the improvement of power battery performance urgently needs technical breakthroughs. Therefore, enterprises should increase support for basic research, accelerate the transformation of research results, pay attention to the cultivation of talents, strengthen the coordinated development of industry, University and research, and use technological innovation to concentrate on high-end fields to create competitive advantages
"improving the level of intelligent manufacturing plays a key role in improving the quality and cost of power batteries and optimizing production capacity." Jiang Wangyue pointed out that first, China's power battery industry as a whole still wins by "quantity". The production scale is large, but the quality is not as good as Japan and South Korea, especially there is a big gap in consistency; Second, the power battery industry belongs to the manufacturing industry. Intelligent manufacturing can help to accurately control quality and reduce production costs. Improving the level of intelligence, informatization and automation is a systematic project, which still needs the continuous and strong investment of enterprises and governments
in short, "to promote the healthy development of industry, we must rely on 'marketization', but we cannot ignore the positive role of policies." Wang Qian analyzed that the standardization of industry standards, the high standard requirements for subsidy acquisition and the correct guidance of investment direction are still indispensable for the rapid growth of the power battery industry. In particular, we should continue to support a number of power battery enterprises with advanced technology, complete chain and qualified product quality, and put forward requirements for the "feedback ability" of these enterprises, so as to ensure China's leading position in the field of power batteries and new energy vehicles as the world's largest new energy vehicle market
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